During the year in which more than 10 world records in athletics have already been broken, fans are now looking at Diamond League Final in Brussels, Belgium, to add at least one more person.

In an Olympic year, the prospect of becoming a Diamond League Champion, trophy and all, is dwarfed by the Olympic hardware. Spectators and athletes alike will be tackling these two days of competition not in search of personal bests, but world records.

Rather than focusing on scenarios, storylines, and end-of-season prize money, this article will focus solely on the winning scenario for each event and the likelihood that that victory will result in a world record.

For the sake of brevity, the field events have been omitted, with the notation that the men’s pole vault has the best chance of a new record. Mondo Duplantis has technically “jumped” higher than 6.27m at several points in his career, “clearing” slightly lower bars.

(Thunderbolt, 9:58)

Although Olympic bronze medalist Fred Kerley has said or hinted on several occasions that he will break the 100-meter world record of 9.58, he has yet to break 9.80 this season. He is the favorite in this race because Noah Lyles and Kishane Thompson are not running, but this is the kind of race that is won in 9.86.

Bolt’s best individual achievements will surely endure.

Probability: .01%

(Merritt, 12.80)

American Aries Merritt’s world record was set during a series of perfect races in 2012. Olympic gold medalist Grant Holloway ran an impressive 12.81 seconds in 2021 to set the record for the most sub-13 second races. Unfortunately, Holloway withdrew from the Diamond League final due to an alleged financial dispute.

This race will be Freddie Crittenden vs. Daniel Roberts. Expectations should be set at 1:00 PM.

Probability: .01%

(Thunderbolt, 19.19)

First Noah Lyles confidently broke Bolt’s 200m record. Then Erriyon Knighton was declared a spoiler. Then, this season, Letsile Tebogo showed what he can do.

The race, which will feature Knighton, Tebogo and American Kenny Bednarek, who has just improved his record to 19.57, could be an outside challenge to Bolt’s 19.19. Knighton could recapture his previous form, which saw him run 19.49 in a race earlier in the season in 2022. Tebogo has retired early in a couple of blisteringly fast races this year. A perfect full-effort race with a tight turn-in would definitely see him reach 19.20.

Probability: .5%

(Van Niekerk, 43.03)

The world’s best 400m runners must be battered after such a long season. Only three men in the field have broken 44. Breaking the world record of 43.03 will probably involve breaking 43. Matthew Hudson-Smith, with a personal best of 43.44 and a shiny Olympic silver, will have to risk a certain Diamond League podium if he is to demolish his personal best and break the world record.

Probability: .125%

(Warholm, 45.94)

In one of the few men’s track and field events still featuring a world record holder, fans will be disappointed to learn that Karsten Warholm will not be running in Brussels. As will Olympic gold medalist Rai Benjamin. The remaining hurdler in the triarchy, Alison Dos Santos, did not finish her last race and has shown no signs this season of running in the lower 46.

Probability: .05%

(Rudisha, 1:40.91)

The men’s 800m is the race to watch on the men’s side. There are four men in the race who have clocked 1:41, all of whom have run huge personal bests this season. For Emmanuel Wanyonyi (1:41.11) and Marco Aropa (1:41.20), the world record is painfully close.

There are only nine men in the field, which reduces the risk of collisions or having to run a much longer distance. Marc Carrera, an 800-meter runner who competed in the Puerto Rican Championships this season, shared this reflection:

“While the 1500m group has momentum, I think the 800m (world record) group is more at risk – (it’s) the end of the season and the athletes are probably more sharp (fast) than aerobic.”

Now that the world’s best runners have had a full season to get to know each other and carefully evaluate their efforts, they will be looking to run in Brussels in a race that could set the tone for the next decade.

Probability: 12%

(El Guerrouj, 3:26.00)

Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s personal best in the 1500m is 3:26.73. A few weeks ago, he broke the world record in the 3000m, covering the distance in 7:17.55. Jakub’s quest to break all ten world records in long-distance runningThe 1500m is the hardest track record to break, and also the one he has the least time on before it slows down or someone younger steals it.

Although Jakob was ill during the last stop of the Diamond League and there are rumors that he is considering running the Copenhagen Half Marathon two days after that race, this may be as good a chance as any to break the 3:26 record.

Note: A previous forecast 10% given on August 28. The probability below only takes into account this event and takes into account recent illness. Without illness and better play to win in Zurich, it is closer to 5 percent.

Probability: 2%

(7:52.11, Girma)

Lemekha Girma’s world record was broken the same season that his fall in the Olympic final led to his hospitalization, which seems fundamentally unwise. Of course, the sport goes on in his absence.

8:01.36 Girmy from earlier this year is the world leader, and Soufiane El Bakkali is the only man in the field to ever break eight minutes. It looks like El Bakkali will have at least one Moroccan pacer joining him in this race, but without Girmy to push him, the record is out of reach.

Probability: .05%

(12:35.36, Cheptegoy)

Jakob is not competing in this event – ​​it takes place about an hour before the men’s 1500m. Although the weather seems to be cool, if Rome 5000m Race is any indication, several runners in this field will have to make sacrifices if the winner is to have a chance at breaking the world record. This 5-kilometer race ended shortly after the pacemakers left, and the field easily caught up with the exhausted, slowing leaders.

There are four Ethiopians in the field. Berihu Aregawi ran 3km in 7:20 for Jakob’s world record, while Hagos Gebrhiwet ran 5km in 12:36.73. There is a real chance that this strong world record will be challenged. If Jakob had to watch the world record being set from the stands, it would be painful.

Probability: 1%

(Griffith-Joyner, 10:49)

FloJo’s wind-assisted world record of 10.49 is almost certainly in danger of being challenged by another clash between Sha’Carri Richardson and Julien Alfred. Richardson redeemed her Olympic defeat to Alfred in Zurich. They will look to set the stage for a new era of the event, competing against a field that, shockingly, does not include a single Jamaican.

Probability: .05%

(Amusan, 12/12)

As in the men’s race, the women’s high hurdle race requires perfect execution and a cooperating wind. The wind cannot be too strong in any direction, otherwise there is a risk that it will affect the rhythm of the race.

Although Tobi Amusan’s record is tarnished after she missed three doping tests, this race is slightly greater chance of a record-breaking performance compared to the men’s race. Ackera Nugent, who was outstanding towards the end of the season, may lower her personal best of 12.24 as an insult to Amusan’s result.

Probability: .025%

(Griffith-Joyner, 21.34)

In an unexpected doubles match, Sydney McGlaughlin-Levrone will compete in one-off 200m race outside the Diamond League program. That’s unfortunate, because her spot in the official 200m would have meant a clash with Sha’Carri Richardson. Such a clash could be the best sprint race of the season, regardless of gender or championship.

Sydney is poised to break her personal best of 22.07. While her challenge for Koch’s 400-meter record has sparked some controversy, that record is likely still beyond the hurdling star’s capabilities.

Probability: .05%

(Koch, 47.60)

The women’s 400m race will be very, very interesting. It will be two races. In one, the actual Diamond League race, Olympic champion Mariledy Paulino will fend off attacks from Salwa Eid Naser. In the other, Sydney McGlaughlin-Levrone, who failed to qualify for the Diamond League final, will try to beat her personal best of 48.75.

Given that Sydney, who also runs the 200m in a one-off event at this meet, has been running in the low 50s over that distance with obstacles in the way, it is widely assumed that she has the speed and stamina to break 47. Sydney, running against a weaker field, will almost certainly overshadow this Diamond League final.

Probability: .25%

(McGlaughlin-Levrone, 50.37)

The world record will not fall without Sydney’s participation. World No. 2 Femke Bol took a chance in Paris and showed how close to the edge her performances are as she ran out of steam and finished third. Bol’s season record of 50.95 was achieved at altitude and, when converted, suggests she is almost a full second off Sydney’s record.

Probability: .01%

(Kratochvilova, 1:53.28)

The women’s 800m world record, one of the oldest in track and field, will remain out of reach this season. Britain’s Jemma Reekie ran the furthest in 1:55, clocking 1:55.61. The women’s 800m has not seen the same surge in performance as the men’s this season. The women who were once tipped to break the record, Keeley Hodgkinson and Athing Mu, have both retired from the season.

The amount of improvements needed to break this record is enormous.

Probability: .005%

(Kipyegon, 3:49.04)

Can Faith Kipyegon break the world record again this year? Yes. It sounds ridiculous considering the world record is 3:49.04. It really is Kipyegon against the world, even though there are challengers like Jess Hull.

The pace will have to be spot on and Jess Hull could be there to run the distance in 3:51 or more if Kipyegon falters, but here it is Kipyegon who is racing against the clock.

Probability: 6%

(Czepkoech, 8:44.32)

Winfred Yavi from Bahrain took part in one of the most extraordinary obstacle races in recent years, in which in Rome seemed to realize on the final stretch that she had a chance at breaking the world record. Her final sprint gave her second place all-time with a time of 8:44.39.

If he can catch the same energy, Yavi could break that record. The late pace of the Peruth Chemutai race would be valuable.

Probability: 1%

(Tsegay, 14:00.21)

Will we see the first woman to run 5 km in under 14 minutes? In this field, which does not include defending world record holder Gudaf Tsegaya, Beatrice Chebet will lead with a personal best of 14:05.92. What was announced as world record attempt in Zurich saw Chebet run a dominant 14:09, which is still not particularly close to the record. She will be chasing perfection, trying to get under 14 minutes. The men’s 5k record has a much better chance of being broken.

Probability: .1%